If you have Ovechkin, you probably should hold onto him. He does not have the current injury woes that someone like Crosby has. There will be vultures circling, if they’re sharp, trying to grab AO from you since had had an off-season. You know how valuable a player is when an off-season is 85 points and still easily top 10 in scoring in the entire league. The entire Caps team had an anomalous season in terms of offense. They implemented a new, more defensively responsible play-style last season and it helped them turn around their season after their mid-season slump going into the new calendar year. Be sure to watch HBO’s 24/7 Pens-Caps Road to the Winter Classic series on that from last year, if you have yet to see it. It was pretty good.
Still, even with the change up in systems for the Caps, there is a good reason even Yahoo! ranks Ovechkin 2nd overall pre-draft. It is highly likely that they will increase their offensive production this season and that will be lead by AO.
Also, if your league differentiates between forward positions, such as left wing vs. center vs. right wing, then Ovechkin becomes even more valuable since high quality left wingers tend to be much fewer in number, especially compared to quality centers. Aside from Daniel Sedin nowadays and Heatley and Kovalchuk when they were much better a couple years back, there are not that many truly premier LWs out there, especially when you take into account guys that stay healthy for pretty much the entire season. Ovechkin is a tank like that: he does not miss that many games.
If you do decide to trade Ovechkin, depending on your league’s scoring settings, you should be expecting a top 5 goalie coming back and also another first-line player as well at a minimum. If your particular league does not value goalies that much (some leagues don’t even use goalies) then you’re going to be looking at at least two 2nd round type players coming your way. Since we’re talking keeper league here, they’ll need to be young players. Some would even argue that this is not even close to enough. Ok, there’s definitely rationale for that. I happen to have Ovechkin in one of my leagues and there is pretty much no chance of me ever trading him in the near future. So there’s that.
Factors to consider:
Age: Still Young and In Prime
PPG Pace: Top 3
Injuries: Minimal
Return Value: Huge
Perhaps you are interested in acquiring Ovechkin for your own team. A good time to strike is probably early this season. If AO starts off a bit slow, try and convince your opposing manager that Ovechkin is clearly never going to be the same in the new Caps defensive-minded system and that you would be glad to take him at his inevitably lower status from then on. Hopefully the other manager is quick on the trigger and is a bit more short-term oriented in thinking. If Ovechkin starts off hot, it will be a much tougher sell, clearly. You may have to bite the bullet and try to grab him whenever the opportunity arises, though, since guys like him are just that valuable. Giving up an extra pick or good player may still be worth it in the long run.
There is still an actual possibly that Ovechkin (and perhaps the rest of Washington) will slow down a bit offensively for the foreseeable future. That would be good for the team’s actual playoff hopes in terms of playing more solid defense but not so good for the fantasy hockey fans out there.
Still, trading for or trading away Ovechkin is probably going to be a very polarized decision which should make it a bit easier. Either you get a monster offer for him, if you have him already, or you’ll have to put together a monster offer to get him. Do not take any small offers for him, you have to take into account future production and he’s a known top producer already. He is easily top 3 in a keeper league in terms of short-term and long-term production.
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