Trading Crosby in a Keeper League

Sidney Crosby. Sid the Kid. Whatever you want to call him, he’s the top fantasy hockey points performer out there when he’s healthy. Last season, he was on a 132 point pace before his injury with 66 points in only 41 games. He’s surpassed the 100 point mark in 4 out of his 6 total seasons played in the NHL. The other two, he was well over a point-per-game pace but missed many games due to injury.

If you’re looking to trade Crosby in a keeper league, you had better be getting a huge return. Guys like Ovechkin and Stamkos should be coming back to you at a minimum–that is, when he’s healthy.

The only issue now is Crosby’s health. This is no small issue, though, because concussions are notoriously hard to shake for certain players and it could have career-ending impact. Not that this is the case for Crosby necessarily but it is something to keep in the very back of your mind when considering whether or not to hold on to him.

There have been huge point producers in the recent past that had major injury worries, from Crosby’s boss, Super Mario, to Forsberg. An injured player cannot help your team no matter what his PPG average is.

A couple years ago, trading Crosby would have been unthinkable. Times have changed. Depending on how he does this year, it would not be the end of the world if you traded him while he’s still at his peak in name value and also production, but only if you think he won’t be able to shake this recent injury bug. Otherwise, hold onto Crosby for dear life because when he’s healthy there is no one more productive at the moment.

Factors to consider:
Age: Still Young and In Prime
PPG Pace: Top 2 (when healthy)
Injuries: Significant Risk
Return Value: Huge (when healthy)

Lately, there has been discussion about Crosby possibly even retiring. This seems premature but is something that current Crosby owners should be keeping an eye on for the future if he take another big hit. He’s slated to return this season but concussions are no joke, especially if he goes down for an extended period again, which is not out of the question. That really could be career-ending and is something to take into account when deciding whether or not to trade him (or trade FOR him).

It becomes a matter of subjectivity with respect to the level of risk you’re willing to handle. Some managers are extremely risk averse and thus will probably want to trade Crosby as soon as he comes back, which would be understandable. Other managers will actually want to gamble and try to acquire him at his lowest value, which is right now, injured. If you currently hold Crosby as a keeper, you have to make the risk assessment and if you honestly believe he will be the go-to guy he was consistently when healthy. This concussion thing has really thrown a wrench into the plans where Crosby was supposed to cruise into the Hall of Fame with a really good career. It could still happen obviously but there is a greater chance now with him not starting the season that there could be problems down the line.

To re-iterate, if you have Crosby and think he will return some time during the season, it would be best to hold him until then. If you honestly do not believe he’ll be the same ever again and might even retire, as some of the more extreme viewpoints out there have suggested, then you’ll have to cut your losses and try to get as much for him as possible while you still can. I think the better bet is to stick it out for at least a few months and see if he comes back some time this season, then if you still want to trade him, let him go on a nice hot streak first, which he’s bound to do if he’s healthy. Don’t get over-anxious and try to trade him the day he gets back as he’ll be at his lowest level in terms of up-front trade value.

The injury factor really screws up any sort of projections people will try to make. However, going off his past stats, if you were to trade him, you should be getting at least two first-line type players from other teams and maybe a very high draft pick too. Just because he’s injured does not mean you should be giving him away for free. There is the concern that if your level of patience is too low and you end up trading him for less than what he’s worth that if he comes back good and healthy you have taken a massive loss. Some might even argue that trading him at all is a risky proposition because he is so talented. It could really come back to haunt you.