Club: St. Louis Blues
Fantasy Impact Rating: Lukewarm
Superstars: N/A
Big Producers Brad Boyes, Paul Kariya
Mid-Level Flyers Andy McDonald, Keith Tkachuk, Chris Mason
Rookies/Prospects: Alex Pietrangelo, Lars Eller, Ben Bishop
Sleepers: David Perron, David Backes, T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, Erik Johnson, Jay McClement, Jake Allen
Avoid The Hype: Alexander Steen
Analysis:
There’s a youth movement taking place in St. Louis and savvy managers could have a prime opportunity to get the most “bang for their buck” if they consider one of the Blues’ young guns.
The St. Louis Blues are heading into the 2009-2010 season without a clear cut superstar on their team. They are, however, loaded with potential and a few veteran leaders that should not go overlooked in fantasy drafts this season. First things first: whatever you do, don’t forget about Paul Kariya when you’re assembling your team this fall. There’s a good chance that he’ll fly under the radar a bit in player rankings because of his injury last season. Truth be told, though, he still has the skill set to be a valuable fantasy player. Before he went down last season with a hip injury, he amassed 15 points in 11 games with the Blues. His value as a keeper left winger may not be very high, but in year-to-year leagues, consider him a great 2nd option at left wing for any fantasy team, in any fantasy format. Across the ice from Kariya this fall will be up and coming scorer Brad Boyes. Boyes is making a name for himself in St. Louis and is showcasing a knack for finding that back of the net. He has tallied 76 goals in 2 full seasons with St. Louis and is a slick option at right wing for fantasy managers that intend on placing emphasis on their goaltending or defense first this fall. Barring injury, Kariya and Boyes will be top line players in 2009-2010.
Looking at the current roster, it seems as though Keith Tkachuk would best serve the team on the left hand side this season. The past couple of seasons, major services had him listed as a center, left winger, or both, so we’ll have to wait and see what the consensus is in a couple weeks. One thing is for certain, however: he’s still a viable option for points. Tkachuk is certainly getting up there in age, but don’t let that deter you from considering him in year-to-year leagues as a 2nd/3rd option at left wing or 3rd/4th option at center. He’ll most likely see power play time this season as he adds much need veteran leadership to an extremely youthful lineup.
Managers whose draft strategy consists of building up wingers, defenders and/or goaltenders early on may want to consider Andy McDonald at center as there’s a good chance he could be available in the middle rounds of a 12-manager league. He was putting up impressive numbers last season until an unfortunate ankle injury sidelined him for 36 games. A realistic projection for McDonald is 60-70 points in a healthy season, especially with the talent surrounding him. People are familiar with the name, so calling him a sleeper would be somewhat of a stretch, but a savvy manager could nab Andy Mac in the middle rounds and get great value for their pick.
Moving forward, the Blues have a helluva group of prospects coming down the pipeline, so we’ve had to weed through a huge list of players to see who could be fantasy candidates in the next year or two. The biggest improvement that the Blues are looking to make heading into this season is improving the offensive output coming from their blue line. Last season, their defense was only able to amass 113 points (spread out over 10 defenders). Of which, only 15 of the 113 points were goals and only 4 of those goals were with the man advantage. Even the Islanders had more offensive output from the back end last season! No worries, though. There is light at the end of the tunnel. If you’re looking for a couple of sleeper defenseman this season that could really make an offensive impact for the Blues, look no further than Alex Pietrangelo and Erik Johsnon. Johnson is back from his short stint with the PGA Tour and is ready to bolster the St. Louis blue line in 2009-2010. He will be their power play quarterback this season and, due to his injury last season, will fly under the radar in a lot of drafts this season. He could fall to the late middle rounds in some leagues, so take note. Pietrangelo has a serious shot at cracking the line up this year, and if he does, we could see the future of the Blues defense taking shape; we’re talking resemblances of MacInnis-Pronger here, folks. He’ll be another late round steal for savvy managers, so double check before your draft that he’s going to be on the roster to start the season and pull the trigger.
For those managers in keeper leagues looking for the next big thing at left wing, you may not need to look any further than Lars Eller. Let’s keep in mind that Kariya and Tkachuk have been around the block a few times, and with their long-term future with the organization up in the air, it would seem like the best time to invest in Eller is now. He will certainly be of consideration this season for the Blues if the injuries pile up, and could certainly be an end-of-the-season call-up if this year doesn’t go as planned for St. Louis. Tkachuk and Kariya are both due for contracts at the end of the 2009-2010 season, which puts a pretty big hole in their left side if they don’t re-sign, so getting Eller’s feet wet in March/April may be an indication that the organization is priming him for full time stint in 2010-2011.
Part of the problem with having a team like St. Louis, in a fantasy hockey sense, is trying to figure out with of the young guns to consider this fall. Out of David Perron, David Backes, T.J. Oshie and Patrik Berglund, who are we supposed to buy into in 2009-2010? Certainly not an easy question to answer. The best way to look at this situation is to look at it by position. Right wing is the thinnest position in fantasy hockey, so it’s important to play your cards right and accumulate respectable depth at the position. This is where David Backes becomes slightly more valuable to a fantasy manager than the 3 other players. Plain and simple: Backes is a fantasy stud. He’s the type of player that will score a goal, then punch his opponent in the face immediately afterward. It’s every managers dream to have at least one player like this on their team, and at an ultra thin right wing position, he is certainly serviceable as he will likely be St. Louis’ 2nd line right wing option this season. He’ll see 2nd unit power play time and could be a candidate for another 100+ penalty minute season, so managers in rotisserie leagues should make him a top priority. Just remember, though, that a player like Backes may go quicker than some expect because of the lack of fantasy caliber players at right wing, so if you’re in the market, you may have to reach a bit.
Berglund, Oshie and Perron should all be considered 3rd options at their respective positions for any fantasy team to start the season. There could be a lot of line shuffling in St. Louis this season if things go astray, so relying heavily on any of these players for serious production could come back to burn you in the end. Play it smart and use these players to build depth in deeper fantasy hockey leagues, or as utility players in regular 12-manager leagues.
Now, I’m sure readers were curious as to why we have Jay McClement on this list at all. “Of what fantasy value is a 2-way 4th line center to my team?” Absolutely none in shallow leagues, but for deeper fantasy leagues he may have some value depending on your league’s statistical categories. McClement had a great season with St. Louis in 2008-2009 and while we may not see similar numbers in 2009-2010 because of the depth the Blues have at center, he becomes serviceable to fantasy hockey managers who play in leagues that weigh in heavily on the face-off categories. McClement is what we like to call a “fantasy role player.” He was 9th in the NHL last year in face-off wins, operating at just over 52%. He’s a penalty killing workhorse, so he also has some appeal as a shorthanded threat. Is McClement an option in 12-manager leagues with standard categories? No. Is he an option for managers in deeper fantasy leagues that weigh in on both face-off wins and shorthanded tallies? Absolutely. He’ll be there with the last couple of picks in the deepest of leagues for sure, so managers looking to hone in on addressing categories with the last couple picks of the draft should consider him as long as it doesn’t upset the balance of the team.
In terms of players to avoid this season, the only one that stands out on the Blues’ roster is Alexander Steen. Steen had a couple decent years with Toronto where he was racking up 40+ point performances, but those days are behind him now. The Blues have far more promising young guns that will get their chance ahead of him, so if you bit hard when he was traded to St. Louis last season, make sure you don’t make the same mistake twice.
Goaltending:
Grade: B
1. Chris Mason
2. Ty Conklin
If you think about it, Chris Mason’s rise to starter came rather abruptly last season. One week Manny Legace is starting games for the Blues, and the next he’s in the AHL, and Mason is leading the end of the season charge to a potential playoff spot. Mason first broke through as a starter in Nashville. He played well in Tomas Vokoun’s absence and eventually won the starting job outright as Vokoun was dealt to Florida. Mason fell on hard times the following season, however, and was ousted by the stellar play of Dan Ellis. He did get his shot with the Blues, however, and shined at the end of last season. St. Louis fell just short of the playoffs, but Mason’s efforts did not go unnoticed. The Blues certainly will rely on Mason again this year to help keep them contenders in an extremely competitive Central division, and with a viable backup in Ty Conklin, the Blues could certainly afford to give him breaks here and there. 60-65 starts for Mason seems like a sound number for 2009-2010. Consider him a solid 2nd option behind a marquee tender. Managers who load up on forwards and worry about goaltenders later on down the line may want to consider Mason as a top option, especially with the promise the Blues have. He’s not the best on the market, but if you’re looking for starts and a decent shot for a win once, maybe twice a week, throw him in your queue.
On a final note on the goaltending situation, Mason is certainly not the goaltender of the future for the Blues. Ben Bishop may be though. Bishop is an absolute monster between the pipes at 6-foot-7-inches. Depending on what the Blues do next season with Mason, we could start seeing Ben Bishop in the near future. Don’t pull the trigger on him just yet, but keep him in the back of your mind, especially in keeper league situations. Behind Bishop lies another promising prospect in Jake Allen, however, he may have a few years ahead of him before he becomes NHL ready. Still, it’s something to think about for our readers in keeper and dynasty leagues.
As we progress through the month of August, you can find a new team analyzed for its fantasy value just about every day, so bookmark our 2009-2010 Team Breakdown page and enjoy.
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