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Mar
28

Draft Experiment: BPA Update 4

This is the fourth update in the draft experiment series, for the Best Player Available draft. If you’re unfamiliar with the premise, go back and read the original post: the great draft experiment.

This team was drafted with an emphasis on taking the “best player” available at each pick, without regard for position or how others were drafting. This method has yielded the least successful team by far out of all the draft experiment teams, which is not unexpected. As it stands, the highest this team can feasibly end up placing is around 8th place.

BPA standings
Click on the image to view its full size (opens in separate window).

The first row is the ranking in each category (this is a roto league) and the second row is the total year-to-date accumulation for each category.

Just a couple days ago this team was up in 8th place, however there has been shifting over the past stretch of games and the team has slid right back down to 11th. Pretty brutal state of affairs. There are simply no goalies to be picked up that are anywhere worthwhile, which is where the biggest weaknesses are and the lowest standings totals. It is highly unlikely that this situation changes much from now until the end of the season.

Here is the roster:

Best Player Available roster

The team’s Achilles heel continues to be goaltending. It is dead last in both GAA and SV%, not a good combo to have. There is really little to be done in this area, because GAA and SV% are both categories where averages come into play, rather than just straight accumulation, like most of the offensive categories. The entire goalie crew would have to start absolutely dominating in order for the whole year to date average to be raised significantly: not going to happen. Also, the fact that Turco continues to put up rather mediocre stats does not help the cause. Early season woes for Biron have been overcome, but Turco does not want to follow suit. Aside from Biron, who has been quite good the past several weeks, every other goalie has been up and down (mostly down). Huet has taken a backseat in Chicago with Khabibulin returning from injury and Halak the same to Price. Bryzgalov is the #1 goalie in Phoenix but that does not mean much at this point. Free agent goalies won’t help this crew. The only thing left is to set the roster and let them do what they can do. Focusing on the skaters is the best course of action right now.

On the skater’s side, Horton and Kaberle were both dropped a few weeks back due to injury. It had to be done, as there was no room on the roster for injured players. This team has suffered through a bunch of key injuries, setting it further back in max games than it should be. Much further back. It is the exact opposite of most managers who play it like an h2h league and slot in their players over and over each game.

The only addition lately has been Scott Gomez, since the team is behind in games at C, but it is likely too little, too late. The other centers are Briere and Jokinen, who have also missed significant time this season due to injuries. For the wingers, both Detroit guys have been massive disappointments this season, considering how high they were drafted. Zetterberg and Hossa are both under a point-per-game scoring clip, which is just not good enough. On a similar note, RW Dustin Brown is doing about as well as he did last season, but that can be considered a disappointment, too, as a lot of people were hoping for a bigger breakout for the young LA captain this season. Recent pick-up Kunitz has been good since his trade to the Penguins.

The defense right now is composed of Boyle, Wideman, Whitney, and O’Brien for PIMs. The D has games to use for max games utilization so it’s likely that a goalie will be dropped in the next few days, because that seems to be a lost cause. In the mean time they’ll just have to continue to do what they can. Danny Boyle has probably been the most solid player all year for this team, out of everyone, which is surprising considering some of the forwards on this squad.

Best Player Available max games

The max games situation is pretty bleak, considering that there are only a couple weeks left in the season. It’s good that there are games to use up, unlike some who have already maxed out, but there are only so many slots available per night. The wingers are at a decent rate of usage but C, D, and G are all behind by a good margin. By season’s end the numbers will be slightly closer to where they should be but there will be games to spare, which is a pretty big waste of production. Better to have maxed ‘em all out early than end up not using enough. Injuries to key players for long stretches certainly contributed to the issue.

Last update the goal was 6th place, as it was within reach, but right now that is not looking to great. The more reasonable goal would be 8th place. As mentioned above, the team was actually in 8th place just a few days ago but has slid lately. The 6-11th place teams are all relatively tightly packed together so there is constant movement up and down the standings for pretty much all those teams, every single day. Perhaps a few good stretches can brighten up the outlook for this BPA team but honestly, it’s looking like it will finish in the bottom half of the league for certain. The BPA strategy itself is not the best strategy but injuries and other factors exacerbated the problems. Certainly a disappointment at this point, but who knows what could happen in the next two weeks.

Check out the original post: The Great Draft Experiment and also the main page with links to all the teams: http://saucerpass.com/draft-experiment/

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