Draft Experiment: BPA Update 3

This is the third update in the draft experiment series, for the Forward Emphasis draft. If you’re unfamiliar with the premise, go back and read the original post: the great draft experiment.

This team was drafted with an emphasis on taking the very best player available when it came time to pick, regardless of position. Normally strong centers are so plentiful that taking the best player available or BPA upon each pick results in an unbalanced team. This team certainly isn’t absolutely horrible, especially on the skaters side, but the goalie crop is weak enough to drag the entire squad down in the standings.

Click on the image to view its full size (opens in separate window).

The first row is the ranking in each category (this is a roto league) and the second row is the total year-to-date accumulation for each category.

This team has moved up the standings a couple spots since the last BPA update a month ago. It was 10th but now is 8th. Still not great, obviously, but it’s better than being dead last. There is still room for improvement, as the team is behind in max games rate. That means there are games in hand over all the other teams above it in the standings, pretty much. A quick glance at all seven teams above this one in the standings showed that no other team has as many games to use at this point. It remains to be seen if these games in hand can be converted into further upward movement in the standings, but the potential is certainly there.

Here is the roster:

There have only been two transactions since the first BPA update back in December. Both were made in the past several days, with Shane O’Brien being added in favor of Kris Letang (who was a healthy scratch a few games in a row at the time) and Chris Kunitz being added upon news of his trade to the Penguins and Markus Naslund being dropped. O’Brien was brought in for PIMs specifically, for sure. Kunitz should be scoring at an increased rate down the stretch playing on Crosby’s wing and getting some PP time with some talented Pens players out there, especially with Gonchar returning to the lineup.

There are four center eligible players on the team right now: Olli Jokinen, Briere, Horton, and also Zetterberg. For the most part, Zetts will always be used at LW, as there are no bench LWs. Horton will usually be used at C, simply because there are more games available to used at center than there are at RW. Briere made his return today against the Devils today but it wasn’t very eventful for the Flyers as they got shutout by the Devils. Marty Brodeur is coming off injury and will be fresh for a playoff run for NJ, getting his second shutout in only 3 games (all wins). The other East teams should be pretty scared.

The wingers are all set with Zetterberg, newly acquired Kunitz, Hossa and Brown. The defense group is anchored by Dan Boyle, who continues to be a force on the scoresheet. Ryan Whitney, the new Duck, Wideman, and tough guy Shane O’Brien round out the blue line here. The wild card is Tomas Kaberle, who just came back off IR for the Leafs. For this fantasy team, though, Kaberle will be kept on IR until his situation becomes clearer. If he gets traded at the deadline, then he will probably become more valuable and some space on the roster will have to be cleared for him to return. It will be interesting to see what happens because this BPA roster needs everyone on the roster as it looks right now.

The goalies are Turco, Huet, Bryzgalov, Biron, and Halak. As a whole, they start a lot of games. However, none of them have played that great throughout the entire season. This is especially true for Martin Biron and Marty Turco, early on in the season. Turco has been a lot better the past month or so, but Biron continues to struggle heavily. As you’ll see from the max games picture below, the good thing is that there are still plenty of games to be used to try and improve on the goalie categories. Halak has been good for the Habs lately, so he’ll likely be slotted in more often from here on in, if he continues his production. Due to the fact that there are five goalies to choose from, it shouldn’t be too difficult to make up some ground in the games played department and try to chip away at the standings in the netminder stats. Also, with five goalies, the chances for using the games allotted on good matchups gets better. It’s never a sure thing in terms of which goalie to play but at least the probability is a bit better when there are more choices to select from. The weekly goalie outlook is a good tool for attempting to set your rosters in advance, and especially if you are required to.

As you can see from the max games snapshot above, the team is behind in C, D, and G. At both wings, it is pretty much on pace for where it should be. There are no bench wingers that get subbed in at this point and there doesn’t need to be. Zetterberg has C eligibility on top of his usual LW, but he’s always in the LW slot. Nathan Horton can also serve as a right winger, even though he’s usually put in the C slot because of the max games situation. Defense is always the toughest to keep up on because there are 4 open slots rather than just 2 for forwards. With 97 games remaining to be played at D, that leaves a decent room for maneuvering in certain stat categories: Shane O’Brien was picked up at D specifically for this reason.

This team’s biggest weakness, as many in fantasy hockey leagues everywhere can admit, is in net. Team BPA ranks 2nd to last in both GAA and SV%, year-to-date. That is pretty brutal. Luckily it is in the middle of the pack in both wins and even shutouts. Due to the games in hand, there is still potential for improvement in the goalie stats. That will be the biggest focus down the stretch, especially after the next update comes around. By that time, most of the skater categories will probably be closer to finalized, so the goalies will be what will make or break the team in the final weeks of the season.

Seventh place is less than 2 standings points ahead of this BPA team. Sixth place is 5 total points away. At this point, 6th place is definitely a reasonable goal to shoot for. There is a large gap between 5th and 6th place and BPA is 22 total standings points away, so it will be a journey to catch up to that space. Until next month’s update, when the max games situations for all the teams get clearer, it is unrealistic to expect this team to climb anywhere higher than fifth place, at the absolute highest. By next month’s update, a realistic goal for the season’s final standing can be made. For now, though, getting up to 6th place would be acceptable.

Check out the original post: The Great Draft Experiment and also the main page with links to all the teams: http://saucerpass.com/draft-experiment/