A lot of managers fall into the trap of overemphasizing youth in keeper or dynasty leagues. Unless you honestly believe that the rookie you have your eyes on will absolutely break out next season, there are probably better bets out there.

The biggest factor for determining if a player is keeper worthy is how many players your particular league keeps per year. If you are running a dynasty league then it’s pretty much all the players, including a potential farm team. If it’s a regular keeper league, then you may have a much smaller number. The smaller the number of keeper holdovers year-to-year, the less worthwhile it is to keep a young rookie who may not break out for another few seasons.

The fact is, although it seems scouting is becoming a lot better and the talent is developing quicker these days, drafts still are crapshoots, for the most part. Keep in mind that stud players like Joe Thornton took a few years to develop. Big Joe only had seven points in his rookie year. Look at highly touted #1 draft choice Steve Stamkos; he isn’t having a great year thus far either with 22 points. That isn’t to say he won’t get better or that he will definitely get to Thornton’s level with time, it just means that different players develop at different paces.

NHL fans and hardcore fantasy hockey managers alike have truly been spoiled the past few years. The recent young superstars of Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, and to a lesser extent Patrick Kane have really raised the expectations out there when doing scouting for young players. The 2003 NHL Entry draft, which now is turning out to be one of the very best draft years in history, also skews the perspective a bit. A lot of the ‘03 draft players also had the luxury of an extra year of development in higher level professional leagues thanks to the lockout, which certainly boosted their improvement rates for the better. Even then, a lot of those players are still developing and have not yet reached their full potential more than 5 years after they’ve been drafted now, which just goes to show you how long it can take for most players.

Also, last year there were a bunch of rookies who had fantastic seasons at a very young age. Aside from Kane, the eventual Calder Trophy winner, teammate Toews had a pretty good year, too, even though he missed some games due to injury. Edmonton’s trio of rookies, Gagner, Cogliano, and Nilsson all had pretty solid years as well. Peter Mueller out in Phoenix also had a huge second half last season, to put himself right up there with the others. However, this season, the sophomore slump/jinx seems to be in effect, at least to some extent. Most of last season’s standout rookies are experiencing dips in production.

Again, make sure you are taking into account the main points. How long do you honestly believe your league will last? Be realistic here. If you think it will only last for 3 years tops, then what is the point of hanging onto a guy like Stamkos, who may not truly breakout until his 4th year or beyond? Stamkos’ teammate and current TB captain Vinny Lecavalier was similarly regarded when he came into the league. However, Lecavalier’s first truly fantastic season was in 2006-2007 when he scored 108 points in the regular season, his 8th season in the NHL.

Also, the amount of players you keep per year is a huge factor. If you only keep 5 per team, depending on the roster sizes and how many managers total there are in the league, it may be a really bad move to keep that highly touted rookie, because there are simply much better choices out there. You can just let that young player go and then get them back in the draft next season. Put things in perspective, not only for the long run but also for the next season and sooner.

Check out the lists of keeper worthy players who are young and use your best judgment based on the factors mentioned here. If your league is really deep and you retain a good amount of players every year to carry over, then guys like Patrick Berglund do become that much more valuable. However, don’t hang onto guys like Nikita Filatov if your league only keeps 4 players per team and does not have a farm system. There are much better choices out there. Always weigh the costs vs. the benefits and look at the keys and the structure in your particular league.