Draft Experiment: Forward Update 1

Forward Emphasis Draft – Update 1

This is the first update in the draft experiment series, for the Forward Emphasis draft. If you’re unfamiliar with the premise, go back and read the original post: the great draft experiment.

For this team it was all about drafting as many good forwards as possible without completely sacrificing the other positions. Easier said than done. If you go back and look at the original forward emphasis draft post, the first two picks were both RW and I did this very deliberately. From my other draft experiences and simply looking at the pool of available players, it was evident to me that the RW pool was shallower overall and had a quicker talent dropoff than the LWs did this season. Taking Iginla and Hossa with the first two draft picks was an easy decision. Overall, the draft went quite well, if you overlook the fact that goalies had to be taken later due to the specific strategy imposed for this specific team. You can’t actually overlook that, though, because goalies are the bane of this team right now.

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As you can see from the standings graphic above, this team is doing pretty decently. As of this moment it sits 5th place out of 12 teams total, not bad. Only a couple weeks ago, however, this team (and 2 others in the draft experiment) was actually in 1st place. Things have shifted a bit in recent weeks due to the competition making up ground in the offensive categories. The real issue with this team is obviously goaltending. With Legace currently on IR and a couple of part time starters in Anderson and Conklin, Biron is the only legitimate starting goalie on the squad. It’s an awkward situation if you take into account the positions for the whole roster (pictured below).

This team really could use another goalie on the squad to help catch up in the goalie categories. Towards the bottom of this post you’ll be able to see the games utilized already and how this particular team is actually way behind in terms of goalie games used vs. max games allotted. Part of this is due to Legace’s constant injuries and also Biron’s terrible start. I was purposely benching Biron and the others when they were struggling so as not to waste allotted games on struggling players. However, this was not unexpected, considering that forwards were emphasized in this draft, it would be rather naive to expect the goalie squad for this team to be fantastic.

This team has two extra wingers, an LW and an RW, both of whom are rather productive. For the most part, Elias and Hemsky are the ones warming the bench in favor of Vanek, Semin, Iginla, and Hossa. On the surface, this looks like a fantastic problem to have but in the long run it’ll probably become detrimental, due to the self-imposed no-trading rule for the draft experiment teams. Also, it would help the competition out too much to drop a quality player like Hemsky, at this point. Hopefully, with some good luck, another manager will drop a serviceable goalie and I will be able to pounce on that with my #2 waiver priority. Honestly, though, that’s not really a plan, simply a possibility.

As for the other positions, the centers are pretty much set in stone with Getzlaf and Kopitar. There are no bench Cs and the same goes for the D squad. For the most part, this team will have to rely on continued good production from the forwards to carry the team. As already mentioned, this team was in 1st place only a couple short weeks ago. It is still in the running to win the league at this point.

Taking a look at the maximum games graphic below, the skaters are in good shape but the goalies will need to play some catch-up. In one sense, this is a pretty good thing. Better to be behind in games used than way ahead like a lot of managers tend to do, as if it’s an H2H league. The C and D will even themselves out simply because of the lack of bench players who get slotted in. The LW is behind because Semin was out for an extended period of time and Elias was put in sparingly in his absence, because over the long run, Semin should prove to be more productive this season (per game) than Elias. RW is only slightly over but Iginla and Hossa get the lion’s share of the starts.

There have been six (6) total moves used so far for this forward emphasis team. Easily the worst move is the one that started before the season even begun: dropping Rob Blake for Kris Letang. I did not anticipate Blake doing so well but then again, Letang’s lackluster production really makes this move look even worse. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and you can’t always make the right move. An impatient manager dropped Hemsky in early November and I was all over that one. Hemsky is definitely a slow starter out of the gate but he should be producing at a point-per-game clip for the rest of the season. Ironically, I don’t even need him, on this particular team with the winger depth. However, if there are any injuries, Hemsky will make a nicer bench fill-in than any of the other managers can boast.

There was a fleeting Sergei Gonchar IR stash attempt but I ultimately had to drop him because I needed the spot for another player who will not be out as long as him. However, I will be grabbing Gonchar again in the next couple weeks if I can, because he’ll outproduce pretty much all my D, even Markov, once he returns, which could be sooner than most anticipate. The initial range was 4-6 months that he’d be out and if it’s towards that closer 4 month end, then that means Gonchar would be returning with enough time in the season to make a significant impact. Keep an eye on that situation. If you have the extra roster spots/IR spots right now and Gonchar is out there, it certainly would be wise to take a chance on him.

Overall, this team is chugging along at a pretty good rate. Although not in first place anymore like before, it still is in within reach. The weakest point, again, are the goalies. As time passes and I am able to catch up a bit in goalies, this team will be able to gain in the standings.

This team is currently in 5th place, but the top 3 teams–in the current standings–are all way over in terms of the rate that they’re using up their games allotted, especially for their forward positions (C, LW, RW). They will run out several weeks before the season is over if they continue their rate of usage. The 4th place team (barely above me in the standings) is the only one who is properly pacing his game utilization. The good thing, though, is that my team is not way over in terms of the skater positions’ games used up and I am STILL outproducing almost all the other teams in the league, for the main offensive categories. This bodes well for the long term picture.

Realistic expectations for this forward emphasized draft team is to place in the top 3. Winning the league outright is definitely a feasible accomplishment as long as the strong forward group can continue their respective paces. The goalie situation will need to be dealt with first and foremost, however. If the goalies can provide even average production, then top 3 by season’s end is a very real possibility, especially when considering the max games scenarios for the teams higher in the standings.

The last draft experiment team (Defense) will be posted tomorrow. Make sure you take a look at the initial post for The Great Draft Experiment and also the main page with links to all the teams: http://saucerpass.com/draft-experiment.