Patience and Timing in Fantasy Hockey

Patience is a virtue even in fantasy hockey and timing is everything.

Sometimes not making a move is the best thing you can do, in terms of the big picture and your team by year’s end. Don’t make panic moves. Don’t make too many moves. I have a friend who simply refuses to stick with his roster for more than a few days at a time. He likes to make moves as often as he can, much more often than is necessary. Sometimes it all works out for the best. Most of the time it’s a wash or even detrimental.

Here are some basic things to be aware of as the season rolls on. They all involve some foresight and basic player knowledge, and of course, some patience.

Frustration drops: Do NOT drop your high draft picks outright. Doesn’t matter if they’ve got 0 points even a full month into the season. Unlikely scenario, but it can happen. If you were confident enough to draft a player pretty high, in the first few rounds, there is absolutely no way you should drop them unless they’re going to be lost for the a huge portion of the season, e.g., Gonchar, and even then, it may be worth it to stash them on IR once they’re eligible, assuming you have at least one free IR slot.

Using your waiver: If you have a high waiver and a player you like got dropped, you’ll be faced with the decision to use up your waiver priority or wait for someone better to get dropped down the line. This situation is definitely a gambling man’s type of game. Unless you’re in a recurring league with the same group of managers and have been for several years and know how they operate their teams intimately, it can be very hard to decide what to do, especially if you have the #1 priority. If you don’t know your league-mates that well, you’ll just have to go strictly by player history and/or potential. If a you feel whoever is dropped will be worth it in the long run, you’ll have to burn your waiver. If a better player happens to get dropped in the future, well that’s too bad and you can’t really worry about that sort of thing too much. Basically, if the player is good enough in your estimation, it may be worth it to grab ‘em. Or you can always gamble and wait until they hit free agency. Don’t wait too long to pull the trigger; having the #1 waiver at season’s end is effectively a waste.

Panic trades: Hopefully you didn’t go and deal away a guy like Ryan Getzlaf due to his poor first few games. I guarantee some people did. It happens every year in a lot of leagues. It’s likely that Getzlaf was drafted pretty damn high and that means he will be counted on heavily for consistent production. If that production isn’t happening, especially early on, some managers have a tendency to panic and try to deal them away, when they’re at their lowest point. This is a grave miscalculation and will come back to bite them soon, as it obviously has in Getzlaf’s case.

Player value fluctuations: Player “stock” values can definitely rise and fall as the season rolls on–every day, in fact, as some in salary based leagues can attest to. It’s up to each manager to know the average relative value of players around the league and if they’ll go up soon or possibly go down. It’s best to think long term here, if you’re in a regular h2h or roto league. You definitely want to be involved in the typical buy low/sell high scheme of things. However, if you miscalculate, you could end up trading players you should’ve had in the hold category. A guy like Alexander Semin, who is currently leading the entire NHL in points is not a fluke. He’s on pace for over 140 points as of this moment, which is very likely inflated, but he definitely does have a shot at 100+ points if he can stay healthy for the full season and continue to play at a high level, not to mention continue playing on a line with fellow studs AO and Backstrom. The trio most recently combined for 12 points in their last game.

Trade timing: When you’re doing some offering and counter-offering of trades, player value fluctuations are extremely significant. If you’re hoping to buy low on an under-producing player, you’re going to have to time your move so that you can get in on the ground floor: where the player is at their lowest value. This can require some patience but also requires quite a bit of timing and luck. If you were hoping to buy low on a player like caps young pivot Backstrom, your time may have passed. Perhaps it’s more prudent to change your sights and target someone like Derek Roy, who continues to struggle. Situations like this have to be handled on a case by case basis, as is the norm in fantasy hockey. You want to be patient in terms of letting the other manager get frustrated with the lack of production but at the same time not wait too long and have the desired player break out of their slump, as it seems with Backstrom at this point.

Be Wary of slow starters: Quite a few good players out there are notoriously slow starters. Out of those, some are historically really good second half performers. However, in terms of trying to maximize fantasy production, these players can be quite aggravating to own. Consistency throughout the schedule is highly important, especially in head to head leagues, where the schedule can make or break you. It may be best to identify some slow starting players and hold off on drafting them and instead try to make a play to trade for them later, a little bit into the season, or even get lucky and grab them off the waiver wire/free agency after their original drafting manager has had enough. If you happen to already own a slow starter or four, then you’re going to have to be patient with them. Rookies can fall into this category, as well. If you trade them away, you’ll be losing out in the long run, unless you can pull off some sweet deals based on only potential (good luck).

Injured players and shortened seasons: Players who have long term injuries often have trouble finding their groove once they return. Gaborik had an injury shortened season in 06-07 but still managed to put up 57 points in just 48 games, 30 of which were goals. However, this is more an exception than the rule. A lot of the time players can re-injure themselves or take many games to find their optimal rhythm and timing. By the same token, players who hold out or wait to sign until mid-season can have similar issues. If Shanahan or Sundin sign this season, this could definitely affect them, just as it did Scott Niedermayer last season, and to a lesser extent, Teemu Selanne. Handling injury prone players is a matter unto itself.

The NHL season is pretty long and there are plenty of games to be played. Make sure you’re planning for the long haul. Some managers who get out to an early lead in their league get complacent fairly easily. You can catch up by season’s end if you just stick with your strategy and chip away at any lead that needs to be erased.

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