New Faces In Tampa Bay Should Conduct Some Magic For The Lightning
Club: Tampa Bay Lightning
Fantasy Impact Rating: Warm
Superstars: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis
Big Producers: Vaclav Prospal
Mid-Level Flyers: Ryan Malone, Radim Vrbata
Rookies/Prospects: Steven Stamkos, Riku Helenius, Karri Ramo
Sleepers: Jeff Halpern, Matt Carle
Proceed With Caution: Mark Recchi
Analysis:
The Tampa Bay Lightning have the opportunity to go from zero to hero in the matter of three months, and the acquisitions made in the off-season may be able to spark some fantasy appeal amongst managers this fall.
Vinny Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis are two sure bets that any manager should make during their draft. Despite the mediocre support around him last season, Lecavalier was still able to notch 40 goals and 52 assists last season, and will easily be able to match that performance this season. He will be drafted at some point in the first round in any format. Martin St. Louis may drop to the 2nd round depending on the size and scoring system of your league, however, he should be treated as a number one right winger for sure. If you’ve made a habit of trying to draft all-star tandems in previous seasons, (e.g., Datsyuk/Zetterberg, Heatley/Spezza) then Lecavalier/St. Louis should be of particular interest to you, especially if you have a swing pick in the first round.
A familiar face will join Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis on the top line in Tampa this year. Vaclav Prospal made his way back to the Lightning in the offseason and looks to complete one of the most deadly first lines in the National Hockey League. While Prospal isn’t a complete sleeper, he will be an extremely great buy if you can nab him between rounds 5 and 8 in a 12 manager draft. Playing alongside of two superstars will definitely have its perks, and Prospal should flourish in this role. 65-75 points is certainly a safe estimate for his production this season and he could be used as a number one left winger, but you may be able to get him far enough along in the draft where you have him as a dynamite number two option.
If you’re a manager that believes in rookie talent, then Steven Stamkos is right up your alley. Be patient, however, with Stamkos. He is young, and needs time to develop his NHL legs. He very well may develop like Nicklas Backstrom did last year, and fantasy managers who do decide to pull the trigger and draft him, should expect a solid second half of the season, so make sure you have 2 or 3 centers in front of Stamkos to start the year. Between rounds 10 and 12 in a 12 manager draft would be an ideal time for him to go, so be cognizant of your center situation before you pull the trigger.
Tampa Bay has relied on their first line for the majority of their production for a number of years now, so bringing Radim Vrbata and Ryan Malone aboard to provide some depth to the roster may benefit fantasy owners in the middle rounds. Malone, a Penguin last season, put in a tremendous effort in Pittsburgh scoring 27 goals and 24 assists and added 103 penalty minutes on top of that. He shouldn’t go too early on in your draft, and should generate some attention if your league rewards heavily for penalty minutes, as well as traditional scoring. If you treat him as your number three left winger, I don’t think you’ll be disappointed with the results. Radim Vrbata may carry similar results this season and is worth a look as a 3rd option at right wing. Vrbata, who had his best NHL season in Phoenix last year, seems to finally be coming into his own, and should hover around that 50 point mark again in 2008-2009. What Vrbata lacks in penalty minutes, he more than certainly makes up for in his ability to point shorthanded, which is appealing for managers who play in a league that reward shorthanded goals, shorthanded assists and short handed points. If you’re able to nab Vrbata anywhere between rounds 12 and 14, consider it a great buy.
Mark Recchi has had dynamite seasons in the NHL, but it’s only a matter of time before he calls it a career here. As of right now, Recchi would be a nice option as a stopgap winger or a bench reserve, but because of his age, you may want to leave him alone this season.
It should be brought to the attention of fantasy managers who had Jeff Halpern pegged as a sleeper coming into this season that he will be out of action until January after doing some serious damage to his knee in the World Championships. If you have the capacity to stash him on injured reserve, it might not be a terrible play. Could be used as trade bait, or a flier in January when he comes off IR. Matt Carle could also be a player to turn some heads this season as he has the potential to quarterback Tampa’s power play. Carle is an offensive minded defenseman who showed signs of becoming a serious threat from the blue line two years ago in San Jose. He was hit hard by the sophomore slump last year and was sent to Tampa in a trade for Dan Boyle. He is a nasty sleeper defender who could easily be nabbed in the final three rounds of any draft.
Goaltending:
Situation: Solid (with pressure)
Grade: B-
1. Mike Smith
2. Olaf Kolzig
3. Karri Ramo
Barry Melrose already made it clear that Mike Smith was his number one goaltender to start the season and Smitty, who still has a lot to learn about being a starter, should have a little better of a team in front of him this season, and should improve upon last season’s performance with the Lightning. Still, it would be better to make sure that you have a solid number one in front of Smith on your team. Also, if Smith falters in net, don’t forget Tampa Bay signed veteran Olaf Kolzig, so there may be some platooning taking place if things don’t pan out the way Melrose planned. Lastly, keep in mind that neither Smith nor Kolzig are franchise goaltenders for Tampa Bay, and from what we have seen from Karri Ramo thus far, much improvement is needed to reach the level that critics are predicting he can achieve. So, despite there being a huge trade for a marquee goaltender, the future is Ramo or prospect tender Riku Helenius. Both are a couple of years away from making an impact, but it’s just food for thought for our dynasty managers out there.
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