The Avalanche Threat Level in Colorado this Season: Low

Club: Colorado Avalanche
Fantasy Impact Rating: Cold

Superstars: None
Big Producers: Paul Stastny, Joe Sakic
Mid-Level Flyers: Ryan Smyth, Wojtek Wolski, Milan Hejduk
Rookies/Prospects: T.J. Hensick, Kevin Shattenkirk, Nigel Williams
Sleepers: None
Avoid The Hype: Marek Svatos, Darcy Tucker, John Michael Liles

Analysis:
It may be in your best interest to steer clear of most players affiliated with the Colorado Avalanche organization when you’re drafting this season.  A lack of talented depth combined with a group of players that may not live up to expectations makes Colorado dangerous fantasy territory this season.

Colorado’s first line may be lacking the consistency that fantasy managers are looking for in the first four or five rounds of their draft. Up and coming phenom Paul Stastny is gradually working his way up into that elite level status in the NHL. Despite missing 16 games last season due to injury, Stastny still chipped in 24 goals and 47 assists. He is a one man wrecking crew who managers should consider somewhere between the 3rd and 5th round of a 12 manager league. To Stastny’s left is 3rd year winger Wojtek Wolski. Wolski was somewhat inconsistent last season with his production and it’s apparent that he still has some aspects of his game to work on. Expect similar results this season (50-55 points) until he can come into his own. If he falters, I’m sure that Granato won’t hesitate to try Tucker out on the top line. Holding down the right hand side on the top line is Milan Hejduk. Hejduk has had up and down seasons in his NHL career and seems far too inconsistent to make your top right winger. Hejduk is a better fit as a #2 right winger in most fantasy formats.

There isn’t any doubt in our minds that Ryan Smyth is one of the hardest working 2 way players in the league. He contributes even strength, on the power play as well as shorthanded. What is keeping him from breaking into the “Big Producers” category is his knack for getting injured. Smyth has missed significant playing time in the past 2 seasons resulting in mediocre numbers by his usual standards. Smyth is a risk, without a doubt, so avoid relying on him as a number one winger, possibly avoid using him as your number two. If he stays healthy for the entire season, expect between 60 and 70 points, and 60 penalty minutes.

We’re not buying in to some of the hype surrounding the next four players, and we think you would be a smarter manager took if you took certain precautions when considering these players. Darcy Tucker had a difficult 2007-2008 season in Toronto, and is looking to start fresh this year with the ‘Lanche. Unfortunately, you may not want to put a ton of stock in him to start the season. Tucker’s production has trailed off since his 61 point performance in 2005-2006, and should begin the season on Colorado’s third line behind Wolski and and Smyth. If you’re hellbent on having Tucker on your team, don’t take him before the 17th round in a 12 manager draft. And even beyond the 17th round, there is plenty of talent left at that time that could outproduce a struggling Darcy Tucker. Much like Tucker, Marek Svatos has been in a slide since his career year in 2005-2006. It seems like each season, though, he is listed as a nice second option at right wing for anyone interested. I’m going to put the kibosh on that real quick. Svatos is a very inconsistent player who might be a nice option in the 16th to 18th round if you’re looking to find a 4th option at right wing and not willing to take a chance on a rookie. John-Michael Liles has shown us in the past that he has the ability to effectively quarterback a power play. However, these past two seasons haven’t been his strongest. It may be time to let Liles drop back to your number 3 option at defense and allow a more consistent producing defender anchor your back end. A good spot to land Liles would be rounds 14 or 15 in a 12 manager league.

If Liles falters again this season, Colorado may be dipping into their talent pool to pull up Kevin Shattenkirk or Nigel Williams to try and provide an offensive spark from their defense. Neither of these players should start the season with the Avalanche, but if Granato isn’t getting the production he needs from his back end, it could be an opportunity for either one of them, so start the season with both players on your watch list.

Last but certainly not least is ageless Joe Sakic. Sakic has just agreed to re-join Colorado for one more season and at age 39, he still possesses one of the best wrist shots this league has ever seen. So what do we expect from big Joe this season? Obviously his age may play a factor in his playing time and production, so expecting him to put up 100 points like here did a few seasons back may be a stretch. If he remains healthy for the entire 2008-2009 campaign, it would be safe to say that Sakic could tally between 60 and 70 points, with power play time being imminent. Begin to consider Sakic in the 7th round in a 12 manager draft and even later if you’re drafting a keeper team for the first time this season.

Goaltending:
Situation: Possible Platooning Situation
Grade:  C
1. Peter Budaj
2. Andrew Raycroft

Straight to the point: Peter Budaj has not been impressive as a starter. He has been named starting goaltender to begin the 2008-2009 campaign, but with Andrew Raycroft on his tail from playing time, he’ll have to play outstanding in order to ensure he maintains his starting job. You may want to avoid this situation all together and only pick up Budaj as a reserve goaltender in case of injury.

Fantasy Hockey Team Breakdowns List